It is still snowing.
Update: 1:30pm - it stopped while I was at lunch.
One of those new-fangeled mobile telephone text messages from Mrs Lloyd suggests that the University of Middlesex has stopped all lectures for the day. Its associate college, Oak Hill, is ploughing on. Students who want to learn a thing or two are no doubt welcome.
Snow ball fights have been common to both institutions.
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3 comments:
What makes you think that snow in Britain and the theory of climate change are incompatible?
Oh, nothing really. I guess it was a bit tongue in cheek and not intended as my fully formed views on the subject.
I guess Im influenced by David Fields questions on the subject, things like:
(1) How do we know the climate is really changing?
(2) How do we know that is not normal?
(3) How do we know it is harmful?
(4) How doe we know we can do anything about it?
(5) How do we know its worth it?
(6)How do we know know new technology wont sort it out?
etc.
Id love to hear what you think with your sciencey hat on? (I say sciencey just because I believe you have a computer and can do sums).
Ps. Come for Sunday lunch sometime soon. Shall we revert to email to fix a date?
Briefly:
(1) We know the "greenhouse effect" exists. It's what stops this planet being a large ball of ice. We know that carbon dioxide ("CO2") in the atmosphere is the "glass" by which the effect brings the temperature on the planet's surface into habitable range. We know that there's currently far more CO2 in the atmosphere than ever (we have a historical record of what old atmospheres were made of from frozen ice cores). We're pretty certain this is because we put it there. This gives a strong hint that something might change. Then we look at recent temperature trends. Most of the top ten warmest years since records began have been in the past 15. We can't be certain, but it's now likely enough, with a big enough downside, that it's time to do something.
(2) We can get some idea of historical temperatures and CO2 concentrations from ice cores and tree rings. There have been fluctuations in the past (like those which caused the ice age) but none of this magnitude.
(3) The planet is in balance. If it shifts slowly around, creatures and plants have time to adapt. (E.g. if it slowly gets warmer over hundreds of years, animals and plants migrate.) But if it changes quickly, they can't adapt in time. Increases in ocean temperature and acidity are already killing off coral beds. Rises in sea levels are particularly concerning as humans have chosen to live extremely close to the sea in some heavily populated areas.
There is also the potential to tip some areas of the earth over the edge from barely-habitable to uninhabitable. And that would create large numbers of refugees.
(4) We don't, for certain. But if we have a pretty good idea what's causing it, we can stop doing that.
(5) It depends what you mean by "worth it". The equation is different for you and I compared to an inhabitant of a low-lying island in the Indian Ocean. We have money and can pay for migitation measures. It'll be inconvenient, perhaps. His land disappears under the waves. He's ruined. This is why I think Christians should be at the forefront, not the back - it's a love-thy-neighbour thing.
(6) Hopefully it'll be part of the solution. No one solution is going to "solve" the problem. We need a combination of better fuel efficiency, alternative power sources, emission reduction and loads of other things. But there's a big risk in sitting there waiting for the magic technology genie to come and wave his wand and make it all alright again.
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