The options so far seem to be the following, or I guess just possibly some combination of the following:
Did they go just to admire the scenery of reeds blowing in the breeze? (R. T. France mentions this option)
Or something (someone) unstable, slight, inconsistent, easily moved, someone who adapted themselves to the prevailing opinions of the day or to the political weather? (France / Leon Morris)
Or perhaps the word "reed", the wind and the watery / wilderness context is meant to echo Israel’s experience in the wilderness and the wind blowing back the Sea of Reeds so that Israel could come out of Egypt. In this case, Jesus would be asking, is John a new Moses? (Jesus might then ask, is John the Davidic king? see v8) (This suggestion is in Peter Leithart. France thinks this less plausible but cites Davies and Allison 2:247 as supporting it.)
Or a Galilean reed blown in the wind is a symbol of King Herod Antipas' emblem, as used on his coins. It is this Herod who has John the Baptist in prison, of course, and this would fit with the mention of king's houses in v8. (This is N. T. Wright's view. Again, France thinks this is a less plausible but cites G. Theissen, Gospels, 25-42 for it).
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